Pakistan’s rice exports collapsed by over 50% in 2025–26 — driven by Afghanistan border closures, catastrophic flooding, and severe PKR currency depreciation. Meanwhile, India became the world’s largest rice exporter, holding 40% of global market share with its western ports completely insulated from regional disruption.

This is an unsolicited consulting brief and live data tool built for KRBL Ltd. (India Gate) — India’s largest basmati exporter — analyzing how this geopolitical disruption creates a rare, time-sensitive export opportunity.

I developed the Supply Chain Confidence Score (SCCS) — a weighted, normalized risk intelligence model that quantifies supplier reliability across three factors: border stability, port efficiency, and macroeconomic volatility. Using min-max normalization on real data from APEDA, UN Comtrade, ACLED, and MarineTraffic, India’s western corridor scores 78/100 against Pakistan’s 41/100 — a gap that holds across every weight combination tested.

The analysis is delivered through an interactive dashboard featuring live weight adjustment, a full audit trail, sensitivity analysis across four scenarios, and a Revenue Premium Simulator that quantifies the financial upside for KRBL if they capture even a fraction of Pakistan’s diverted volume.

Most data projects prove something already obvious. This one was built to answer a specific business question for a specific company during a live geopolitical event — before anyone asked for it.

The goal was simple: if KRBL’s export team opened this dashboard, would it change how they think about their next quarter? I believe it would.

React · Vite · Statistical Modelling · Sensitivity Analysis · APEDA · UN Comtrade · ACLED · MarineTraffic · World Bank · IMF